Is the stage set for Assam peace process?

Assam is on high-alert as it edges its way towards peace talks.

On one hand, a top commander of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) is in India's custody, and is reportedly hours away from expressing his commitment to negotiations with the government. On the other, the ULFA's military chief, Paresh Barua, who is underground in Myanmar, has asked the group's militant cadres in Assam to unleash violence using bomb blasts. Barua's calls to his cadres were intercepted on Tuesday by intelligence officials.

Not surprisingly, Barua's orders came soon after ULFA's Chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa, was found along the Triupara border by the Bangaldesh government. Rajkhowa was handed over to the Indian government and was later flown to Delhi on Tuesday night in a special plane. He now becomes a key player in any discussions for peace. For public consumption, both the government and Rajkhowa have allegedly worked out a sort of PR strategy that will unfold as follows.

Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi will publicly appeal to ULFA on Wednesday to commence peace talks. Rajkhowa will then send the message that he is ready to negotiate with the government. The Centre is then expected to announce safe passage for Rajkhowa and other ULFA men, a move that Home Minister P Chidambaram is reportedly not in favour of, but the Assam Chief Minister believes this is necessary.

Baruah's call for violence in the midst of all this is his way of retaliating to the fact that he has been marginalized within the ULFA. Over recent months, several senior ULFA members have been arrested. Growing differences between Baruah and Rajkhowa have left the group without clear direction.

Whether Rajkhowa surrendered or was arrested remains a matter of confusion. Speaking to NE TV on Tuesday, after his detentions, Rajkhowa said people who claim he was arrested "are trying to derail the peace process even before it can begin. Such people do not want the peace process to succeed."

In Parliament on Tuesday, the Home Minister said that if ULFA is ready for talks, the government will accept the offer, but the militants "will first have to abjure violence."

The big issue now is whether talks can have much impact or significance without Baruah.

ULFA: The men who call the shots


* Command-in-chief of ULFA, Paresh Barua, reported to have fled Bangladesh
* Deputy Commander-in-Chief Raju Barua, whereabouts not known
* Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, arrested by Bangladesh, in India's custody now
* ULFA 'foreign secretary' Sasha Choudhury, arrested in Bangladesh, in India's custody now
* ULFA 'finance secretary' Chitraban Hazarika, arrested in Bangladesh, in India's custody now
* Advisor Bhimkanta Buragohain & Vice-chairman Pradip Gogoi in custody
* Central publicity secretary Mithinga Daimary & cultural secretary Pranati Deka in custody
* Other senior leaders Bening Rabha, Ashanta Bagh Phukan, Ponaram Dihingiya of military wing missing since 2003

Source - http://www.ndtv.com/news